Daniel House takes a dive into the inverse correlation between quarterback play and effective rushing with Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. Will he be as valuable if Teddy Bridgewater translates well to the NFL?
Updated: June 13th, 2014 4:00pm
By: Daniel House
I took the time to analyze the Viking quarterback situation since Adrian Peterson joined the Vikings in 2007. In this post we take a dive into the inverse correlation between quarterback play and effective rushing. When Peterson saw better quarterback play, his yards per carry average was drastically affected. The transition of Teddy Bridgewater to the NFL will weigh into Peterson's production in 2014, but it seems if Bridgewater closely mirrors his college production, the amount of effective rushing may diminish for Peterson.
Below are the stats of every Vikings quarterback since Peterson entered the league in 2007:
Note: (Stats reflect total games played *Not Starts*)
2007:
Tarvaris Jackson- 12 games, 171 for 294 (58.2%), 1,911 yards, 9 TD's, 12 INT's
Brooks Bollinger- 5 games, 33 for 50 (66%), 391 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT's
Rushing Stats:
Adrian Peterson- 14 games, 238 attempts, 1,341 yards, 12 touchdowns (5.6 YPC)
2008:
Gus Frerotte- 11 games, 178 for 301 (59.1%), 2,157 yards, 12 TD's, 15 INT's
Tarvaris Jackson- 5 games, 88 for 149 (59.1%), 1,056 yards, 9 TD's, 2 INT's
Rushing Stats:
Adrian Peterson- 16 games, 363 attempts, 1,760 yards, 10 touchdowns (4.8 YPC)
2009:
Brett Favre- 16 games, 363 for 531 (68.4%), 4,202 yards, 33 TD's, 7 INT's
Rushing Stats:
Adrian Peterson- 16 games, 314 attempts, 1,383 yards, 18 touchdowns (4.4 YPC)
2010:
Brett Favre- 13 games, 217 for 358 (60.6%), 2,509 yards, 11 TD's, 19 INT's
Tarvaris Jackson- 1 game, 34 for 58 (58.6%), 341 yards, 3 TD's, 4 INT's
Joe Webb- 2 games, 54 for 89 (60.7%), 477 yards, 0 TD's, 3 INT's
Rushing Stats:
Adrian Peterson- 15 games, 283 attempts, 1,298 yards, 12 touchdowns (4.6 YPC)
2011:
Christian Ponder- 11 games, 158 for 291 (54.3%), 1,853 yards, 13 TD's, 13 INT's
Donovan McNabb- 6 games, 94 for 156 (60.3%), 1,026 yards, 4 TD's, 2 INT's
Rushing Stats:
Adrian Peterson- 12 games, 208 attempts, 970 yards, 12 touchdowns (4.7 YPC)
2012:
Christian Ponder- 16 games, 300 for 483 (62.1%), 2,935 yards, 18 TD's, 12 INT's
Rushing Stats:
Adrian Peterson- 16 games, 348 attempts, 2,097 yards, 12 touchdowns (6.0 YPC)
2013:
Christian Ponder- 9 games, 152 for 239 (63.6%), 1,648 yards, 7 TD's, 9 INT's
Matt Cassel- 9 games, 153 for 254 (60.2%), 1,807 yards, 11 TD's, 9 INT's
Josh Freeman- 1 game, 20 for 53 (37.7%), 190 yards, 0 TD's, 1 INT
Rushing Stats:
Adrian Peterson- 14 games, 279 attempts, 1,266 yards, 10 touchdowns (4.5 YPC)
Quarterback Stats Since 2007
2007 QB Totals: 17 games, 204 for 344 (59.3%), 2,302 yards, 10 TD's, 13 INT's
2008 QB Totals: 16 games, 266 for 450 (59.1%), 3,213 yards, 21 TD's, 17 INT's
2009 QB Totals: 16 games, 363 for 531 (68.4%), 4,202 yards, 33 TD's, 7 INT's
2010 QB Totals: 16 games, 305 for 505 (60.3%), 3,327 yards, 14 TD's, 26 INT's
2011 QB Totals: 17 games, 252 for 447 (62.1%), 2,879 yards, 17 TD's, 15 INT's
2012 QB Totals: 16 games, 300 for 483 (62.1%), 2,935 yards, 18 TD's, 12 INT's
2013 QB Totals: 16 games, 325 for 546 (60%), 3,645 yards, 18 TD's, 19 INT's
Adrian Peterson Rushing Stats Since 2007
2007: 14 games, 238 attempts, 1,341 yards, 12 touchdowns (5.6 YPC)
2008: 16 games, 363 attempts, 1,760 yards, 10 touchdowns (4.8 YPC)
2009: 16 games, 314 attempts, 1,383 yards, 18 touchdowns (4.4 YPC)
2010: 15 games, 283 attempts, 1,298 yards, 12 touchdowns (4.6 YPC)
2011: 12 games, 208 attempts, 970 yards, 12 touchdowns (4.7 YPC)
2012: 16 games, 348 attempts, 2,097 yards, 12 touchdowns (6.0 YPC)
2013: 14 games, 279 attempts, 1,266 yards, 10 touchdowns (4.5 YPC)
To analyze the context of these stats and how they relate to inverse correlation between quarterback play and effective rushing, there is a huge relation. Adrian Peterson rushed for his highest yards per carry average (6.0 yards) when he was around a solo quarterback operation with Christian Ponder in 2012. Granted in 2009, he rushed for his lowest yards per carry average (4.4 yards), but sprinted into the end zone for 18 touchdowns instead. Analyze the 2009 quarterback stats and you will see Brett Favre threw for the most yards (4,202) during the seven-year span we are evaluating. The Vikings were moving up the field through long passes, which set up more opportunities for Adrian Peterson to score short touchdowns near the goal-line. With poor quarterback play, Peterson was relied on more to carry the offense and advance the team up the field. We witnessed this firsthand in 2012 when he single-handedly carried the Vikings to the playoffs and nearly broke the NFL single-game rushing record with Christian Ponder at the helm. Does this make Peterson less valuable if quarterback Teddy Bridgewater turns into an eventual star passing quarterback? Yes, and it seems likely the Vikings may be shifting philosophies with this team very soon.
What would happen if we placed the college version of Teddy Bridgewater into the Vikings fold?
Teddy Bridgewater in 2013 at Louisville:
13 games, 303 for 427 (71%), 3,970 yards, 31 TD's, 4 INT's
Adrian Peterson has never witnessed a quarterback with these type of stats in the NFL, let alone coming out of college. This doesn't mean Bridgewater will mirror his college stats in the NFL, but it certainly is worth evaluating. Bridgewater's college stats directly reflect the stat line of Brett Favre from 2009.
Brett Favre 2009 QB Totals: 16 games, 363 for 531 (68.4%), 4,202 yards, 33 TD's, 7 INT's
In this instance, Bridgwater and Favre nearly mirror statistics, but at two totally different competition levels. If Teddy is asked to throw the ball this frequently, his stats could come close to these numbers in the future. Peterson rushed for just 4.4 yards per carry under these conditions, which would likely be expected in this situation again. I'm not saying Bridgewater will play at this high level, but considering his past, the numbers should be relatively more effective than in past years from Vikings quarterbacks.
What am I hinting at?
If the Vikings find Teddy Bridgewater is the future of this franchise, they should trade Adrian Peterson at the end of the 2014 season. This comes after evaluating Bridgewater's first season (if he starts) and seeing whether they feel parting ways would be in the best interest of both parties. The team would need to add a running back in free agency or the draft, but with the rate at which the philosophy of the NFL is changing, this would be easy to do. Find a running back who can handle the strains of carrying the ball in situations where the team needs to find the end zone with a short field and the Vikings patch the hole Peterson would leave.
The Vikings perfect suitor would be the Dallas Cowboys, who will have DeMarco Murray hit the free agent market at the end of the 2014 season. If the Vikings could get three picks for Peterson, including a first round selection, it makes perfect sense. Not to mention the picks the team would receive, but the cap space they would be alleviating by making a move. The Vikings would be clearing nearly $15 million in cap space that could be used to sign free agent tight end Kyle Rudolph and guard Brandon Fusco, who both see their deals expire at the end of this season. Both players will be due big money if they produce in 2014, meaning the Vikings will need to clear cap space to make resigning Fusco and Rudolph a reality.
The right scenario would need to align, but based upon the stats and the translation that may ensue with Teddy Bridgewater, it appears the value of Adrian Peterson might diminish in the Vikings offense. As I said earlier, college stats mean nothing in the NFL, but if the stats transfer to the level I suggested, making a move makes perfect sense.
To analyze the context of these stats and how they relate to inverse correlation between quarterback play and effective rushing, there is a huge relation. Adrian Peterson rushed for his highest yards per carry average (6.0 yards) when he was around a solo quarterback operation with Christian Ponder in 2012. Granted in 2009, he rushed for his lowest yards per carry average (4.4 yards), but sprinted into the end zone for 18 touchdowns instead. Analyze the 2009 quarterback stats and you will see Brett Favre threw for the most yards (4,202) during the seven-year span we are evaluating. The Vikings were moving up the field through long passes, which set up more opportunities for Adrian Peterson to score short touchdowns near the goal-line. With poor quarterback play, Peterson was relied on more to carry the offense and advance the team up the field. We witnessed this firsthand in 2012 when he single-handedly carried the Vikings to the playoffs and nearly broke the NFL single-game rushing record with Christian Ponder at the helm. Does this make Peterson less valuable if quarterback Teddy Bridgewater turns into an eventual star passing quarterback? Yes, and it seems likely the Vikings may be shifting philosophies with this team very soon.
What would happen if we placed the college version of Teddy Bridgewater into the Vikings fold?
Teddy Bridgewater in 2013 at Louisville:
13 games, 303 for 427 (71%), 3,970 yards, 31 TD's, 4 INT's
Adrian Peterson has never witnessed a quarterback with these type of stats in the NFL, let alone coming out of college. This doesn't mean Bridgewater will mirror his college stats in the NFL, but it certainly is worth evaluating. Bridgewater's college stats directly reflect the stat line of Brett Favre from 2009.
Brett Favre 2009 QB Totals: 16 games, 363 for 531 (68.4%), 4,202 yards, 33 TD's, 7 INT's
In this instance, Bridgwater and Favre nearly mirror statistics, but at two totally different competition levels. If Teddy is asked to throw the ball this frequently, his stats could come close to these numbers in the future. Peterson rushed for just 4.4 yards per carry under these conditions, which would likely be expected in this situation again. I'm not saying Bridgewater will play at this high level, but considering his past, the numbers should be relatively more effective than in past years from Vikings quarterbacks.
What am I hinting at?
If the Vikings find Teddy Bridgewater is the future of this franchise, they should trade Adrian Peterson at the end of the 2014 season. This comes after evaluating Bridgewater's first season (if he starts) and seeing whether they feel parting ways would be in the best interest of both parties. The team would need to add a running back in free agency or the draft, but with the rate at which the philosophy of the NFL is changing, this would be easy to do. Find a running back who can handle the strains of carrying the ball in situations where the team needs to find the end zone with a short field and the Vikings patch the hole Peterson would leave.
The Vikings perfect suitor would be the Dallas Cowboys, who will have DeMarco Murray hit the free agent market at the end of the 2014 season. If the Vikings could get three picks for Peterson, including a first round selection, it makes perfect sense. Not to mention the picks the team would receive, but the cap space they would be alleviating by making a move. The Vikings would be clearing nearly $15 million in cap space that could be used to sign free agent tight end Kyle Rudolph and guard Brandon Fusco, who both see their deals expire at the end of this season. Both players will be due big money if they produce in 2014, meaning the Vikings will need to clear cap space to make resigning Fusco and Rudolph a reality.
The right scenario would need to align, but based upon the stats and the translation that may ensue with Teddy Bridgewater, it appears the value of Adrian Peterson might diminish in the Vikings offense. As I said earlier, college stats mean nothing in the NFL, but if the stats transfer to the level I suggested, making a move makes perfect sense.
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